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Angleščina
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This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with§a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting§behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be§forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model§involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This§designprovides an optimal background for rational§expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these§hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior§satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of§rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather§than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of§volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior isobserved. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such§as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are§studied.
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