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Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index for Cape Canaveral, Florida
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29.96
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22.34
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The two resulting algorithms are compared to NPTI and persistence, and are evaluated based on their ability to forecast thunderstorms correctly. The primary performance metrics used to evaluate the algorithms are hit rate, threat score, probability of detection, false alarm rate, Brier skill score, and ratio skill score. The investigation results indicate that the new algorithms are suitable for use by the 45th Weather Squadron and are an improvement on NPTI. The results show that the best algorithm, Stratified Logistic Thunderstorm Index (SLTI), has a 57% better hit rate, a 51% better threat score, and a 68% better probability of detection than NPTI. In addition SLTI shows a 59% lower false alarm rate than NPTI. Because of the significant improvement over NPTI, the algorithm should be prepared for operational use at Patrick AFB.
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