Probability, Statistics, and Data

This book is a fresh approach to a calculus based, first course in probability and statistics, using R throughout to give a central role to data and simulation. The book introduces probability with Monte Carlo simulation as an essential tool. Simulation makes challenging probability questions quickly accessible and easily understandable. Mathematical approaches are included, using calculus when appropriate, but are always connected to experimental computations. Using R and simulation gives a nuanced understanding of statistical inference. The impact of departure from assumptions in statistical tests is emphasized, quantified using simulations, and demonstrated with real data. The book compares parametric and non-parametric methods through simulation, allowing for a thorough investigation of testing error and power. The text builds R skills from the outset, allowing modern methods of resampling and cross validation to be introduced along with traditional statistical techniques.Fifty-two data sets are included in the complementary R package fosdata. Most of these data sets are from recently published papers, so that you are working with current, real data, which is often large and messy. Two central chapters use powerful tidyverse tools (dplyr, ggplot2, tidyr, stringr) to wrangle data and produce meaningful visualizations. Preliminary versions of the book have been used for five semesters at Saint Louis University, and the majority of the more than 400 exercises have been classroom tested.